Showing posts with label lending. Show all posts
Showing posts with label lending. Show all posts

NCUA updates CECL Tool

on 1:15 PM

 The NCUA released updates to its Simplified Current Expected Credit Losses (CECL) Tool. The updates reflect the average loan loss rates for 2021-2023 and the latest life-of-loan —or Weighted Average Remaining Maturity—factors. 

The agency noted that the updates will help credit unions determine the credit loss expense for the first quarter of 2024. It also said the tool helps credit unions with assets under $10 million more accurately measure credit losses and get stronger feedback on loan portfolio management. 

Access the agency’s CECL Resources page for more on CECL. 




FFIEC Announces Availability of 2022 Data on Mortgage Lending

on 4:17 PM

 WASHINGTON, D.C. (June 29, 2023) – The Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council (FFIEC) today announced the availability of data on 2022 mortgage lending transactions reported under the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) by 4,460 U.S. financial institutions, including banks, savings associations, credit unions, and mortgage companies.

The HMDA data are the most comprehensive publicly available information on mortgage market activity. The data are used by industry, consumer groups, regulators, and others to assess potential fair lending risks and for other regulatory and informational purposes. The data help the public assess how financial institutions are serving the housing needs of their local communities and facilitate federal financial regulators’ fair lending, consumer compliance, and Community Reinvestment Act examinations.

The Snapshot National Loan-Level Dataset released today contains the national HMDA datasets as of May 1, 2023. Key observations from the Snapshot include the following:

  • For 2022, the number of reporting institutions increased by about 2.63 percent from 4,338 in the previous year to 4,460.
  • The 2022 data include information on 14.3 million home loan applications. Among them, 11.5 million were closed-end and 2.5 million were open-end. Another 287,000 records are from financial institutions making use of Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protection Act’s partial exemptions and did not indicate whether the records were closed-end or open-end.
  • The share of mortgages originated by non-depository, independent mortgage companies has decreased and, in 2022, accounted for 60.2 percent of first lien, one- to four-family, site-built, owner-occupied home-purchase loans, down from 63.9 percent in 2021.
  • In terms of borrower race and ethnicity, the share of closed-end home purchase loans for first lien, one- to four-family, site-built, owner-occupied properties made to Black or African American borrowers rose from 7.9 percent in 2021 to 8.1 percent in 2022, the share made to Hispanic-White borrowers decreased slightly from 9.2 percent to 9.1 percent, and those made to Asian borrowers increased from 7.1 percent to 7.6 percent.
  • In 2022, Black or African American and Hispanic-White applicants experienced denial rates for first lien, one- to four-family, site-built, owner-occupied conventional, closed-end home purchase loans of 16.4 percent and 11.1 percent respectively, while the denial rates for Asian and non-Hispanic-White applicants were 9.2 percent and 5.8 percent respectively.

The FFIEC also released today several other data products to serve a variety of data users. The HMDA Dynamic National Loan-Level Dataset is updated on a weekly basis to reflect late submissions and resubmissions. Aggregate and Disclosure Reports provide summary information on individual financial institutions and geographies. The HMDA Data Browser allows users to create custom tables and download datasets that can be further analyzed. In addition, in mid-March 2023, the FFIEC made available Loan/Application Registers for each HMDA filer of 2022 data, as well as a combined file for all filers, modified to protect borrower privacy. Additional observations regarding the 2022 data may be found here.

Learning from nature — translating the science and art of murmurations into corporate culture

on 10:36 AM

Growing up in the Midwest, I often found myself a spectator to one of nature's most unique and beautiful encounters — the murmuration of a flock of birds. From far away, you'd see one flock in cohesive movement, creating swells and ripples as they flew. 

The real beauty of a murmuration, however, is in the science that happens inside the flock.

It’s not about following a lead duck, instead they coordinate by observing the birds around them and making the adjustments needed to keep the flock together. A sense of safety is present when so many eyes can watch for danger. The birds' synchronized movement warms the group in the cold winter months and attracts more birds to join in their flight. 

As I reminisced on this nostalgia, it came to mind that our company values reflect the science behind a murmuration because the murmuration's purpose is to foster the well-being of the flock. Ultimately, a company's core values should do the same for its employees.

***

'Many times, I've asked the question, "What makes me show up to work every day?" My answer shifts, but it always centers around those I work with. Zest AI has proven to me that belonging doesn't fall on an individual but instead is the work of a group to always advocate for greater inclusion. This culture is made possible when employees see their company and decision-makers living out the cultural values daily.

Our five core values of Heart, Collaboration, Bias-for-action, Communication, and Customer-centricity have created a safety net for our employees and encouraged the desire for a deeper understanding of ourselves, each other, and the world around us.

This company functions much like a murmuration. If you follow my simile, in our flock, we move in tandem, allowing space for each other's individual expression and growth while also recognizing that we all must grow together to remain whole. So we watch out for each other. We find harmony within the shifts and movements of our company. No one is left alone, and everyone authentically fits — we accept every kind of bird here! No need for a peacock to dress its plumage as a pelican or a starling as a bluejay. 

We can learn a lot from nature. We can see how to care for each other and extend protection as a community. We can find ways to promote each other's wellness by offering a soft place to land. We see that by working as a unit, we can create harmony and beauty in the world around us. 

Join us on March 8, 2023, from 11:30 AM to 12:30 PM as you find out how credit unions are leveraging AI to increase approval and automation in underwriting, member acquisition, and compliance related to DEI and CDFI initiatives.

Sign up today

 

How & Why Credit Unions Are Outpacing the Market With Vehicle Leasing

on 2:28 PM

 Of all the change and uncertainty we’ve been through as an industry, one thing has held true throughout: It’s all about the payment. Sounds simple, right? And maybe even a bit obvious. After all, many people are no longer as interested in owning as they used to be. Renting and subscribing are more the order of the day. According to the Global Banking and Finance Review, 70% of business leaders say subscription business models will be key to their prospects in the coming years. According to Zion Market Research, the subscription and billing management market was valued at $3.8 billion in 2018 – and is expected to reach $10.5 billion by 2025. And while we can all agree on the importance of “the payment,” this desire is actively changing consumer financing preferences in surprising ways, while limiting their options. Market forces are putting pressure on buyers. Prices are too high – and inventories still so low.

Supply chain issues forming in 2020 and 2021 have caused OEMs and captive finance companies to actively pull back and in many cases eliminate incentives.

Shocker!

And, it’s not just rebates. Low interest rates and subverted residual values are scarce as well. And it makes perfect sense: Why would captive financial institutions offer incentives when the vehicles that dealers have are selling fast – and at full retail? They don’t need incentives.

Here’s a pretty typical captive finance scenario playing out on dealership lots: A customer coming to the end of his/her lease gets to choose between another lease for a similar vehicle – and hundreds more per month – or a 72-month loan for an even higher monthly payment. Excluding some cars, leasing for 39 months compared to a loan for six years can still be approximately $100 less per month. But that’s the best of two bad captive choices, and a scenario that leaves the dealer without any good options.

The result is sticker shock and a rethinking of options. Consider, for example, that pre-pandemic leasing was almost 30% of the new car market. In some states, it was over 60%. According to the most recent Experian Automotive Report, in Q2 of 2022, overall vehicle lease penetration dropped to just under 20%. All of which makes it appear as though leasing is unattractive and costly.

Blame the pandemic. Or, more accurately, blame the inventory shortages that were at least partially caused by the pandemic. The point is that captive finance companies aren’t pushing leasing as much as they did before because natural demand is stronger. As a result, this important payment option for consumers seems to have vanished.

But dig a little deeper, beyond the captives, and you can find gold.

Credit unions that participate in leasing are up nearly 50% because affordable leasing gives shoppers the power of more payment flexibility, while also keeping their vehicle under warranty. It’s an opportunity born from the alignment between high interest rates, the absence of incentives, and the high price of vehicles – an opportunity your members (and all consumers) have noticed. At nearly 26%, credit unions are experiencing their highest overall share of the auto finance market in five years – a percent of share that’s just 2% below banks.

Here’s a real-world example: According to John Hendricks, senior vice president of lending at the $979 million St. Mary’s Credit Union in Marlborough, Mass., they were not only able to provide members with a car buying alternative, but also effectively grow an auto portfolio at a rate they hadn’t seen in some time. Hendricks said: “With the price of cars continuing to increase, leasing is becoming more prevalent and is now a necessary tool for credit unions to remain competitive in the indirect space.”

It’s true that captives will always lead new vehicle financing, but credit unions are making important headway: Credit union leasing is proving to be a strong antidote for the inflation flu. It also serves as a balancing force that counters the heavy volume of indirect used vehicle business. It’s not uncommon to hear about a credit union that enjoys a record-breaking month in its indirect financing, only to learn that it’s 75% used. Leasing, as a predominately new vehicle option, helps to balance the plethora of used vehicle financing with the best kind of customer: One that learns to appreciate the local nature of customer service excellence of credit unions and has a reason to come back for their next loan … every three years.

In a volatile rate environment, with economic pressures weighing down on members, leasing is a short term, low risk, strong yield option that gives members more payment flexibility and credit unions returning business. That might seem simple – but it also sounds like a very successful strategy.

--Mark Chandler is Vice President, Business Development for CULA in San Diego.

Credit Union Loan Balances Soar Again

on 10:29 AM

 Credit unions continued their pattern of strong loan growth in September, but CUNA Chief Economist Mike Schenk said Monday the growth will fade as the Fed continues raising interest rates.

“That strong loan growth will be tapering off as we go forward,” Schenk said.

CUNA’s Monthly Credit Union Estimates released Friday showed credit unions made big gains in all major areas except first mortgages. Total loan balances grew 19.6% to $1.5 trillion from a year earlier, and rose 2.1% from the previous month, compared with an average September gain of 0.9%.

Schenk said the report showed the same strong gains in loan balances from previous months this year.

The 2.1% gain from August to September marked the third month in a row with monthly gains exceeding 2%.

“Looking back over 30 years, there has never been a calendar year where we’ve had three months of loan growth that fast. It’s pretty incredible,” Schenk said.

Auto loans remain one of the leading growth areas.

New car loans grew 22.7% to $176.6 billion from a year earlier, and rose 3% from the previous month, compared with an average September gain of 1%.

Used car loans grew 19% to $309.9 billion from a year earlier, and rose 2.1% from the previous month, compared with an average September gain of 0.8%.

The Fed G-19 Consumer Credit Report released Monday showed credit unions increased their share of the nation’s total balance of motor vehicle loans. Credit unions had a record 34.8% share as of Sept. 30, up from 33.3% in June and 31.1% in September 2021.

Credit unions’ share was only about 25% in 2015. It rose to a high of 32.6% by the end of 2018 and fell to a low of 30.1% in June 2021 before setting new records in June and September this year.

The G-19 also showed credit unions increased their share of credit card debt.

Credit unions held $70.3 billion in credit card balances as of Sept. 30, up 14% from a year earlier, and up 0.7% from August, compared with an average September gain of 0.3%.

Credit unions’ share was 6.3% in September, compared with 6.2% in August and 6.3% in September 2021.

Banks held $1.02 trillion in credit card debt on Sept. 30, up 16.8% from a year earlier and up 0.4% from August. Banks’ share was 91.0% in September, unchanged from August and up from 90.2% in September 2021.

However, real estate is suffering.

The Mortgage Bankers Association estimated that third-quarter originations of first mortgages were $480 billion, down 55% from a year earlier. It forecast fourth-quarter originations will fall 59% to $410 billion.

Among the Top 10 credit unions by assets, residential real estate loan originations were $11.8 billion in the third quarter, down 33% from $17.6 billion a year earlier and down from $15.4 billion in the second quarter.

On the balance sheet, CUNA estimated that all credit unions held $549.4 billion in first-mortgages, down 2% from a year earlier, and up 1% from the previous month, compared with an average September gain of 1.1%.

Second-lien mortgages grew 17.8% to $100.3 billion from a year earlier, and rose 3.6% from the previous month, compared with an average September gain of 0.2%.

While loans have been growing quickly, savings have lagged. Savings were $1.9 billion on Sept. 30, up 6.6% from a year earlier, and up 0.7% from the previous month.

“And what all of that means is the loan-to-share ratio is rising and has been rising pretty strongly,” Schenk said.

The loan-to-share ratio was 79.0% on Sept. 30, up from 77.9% a month earlier and 70.4% in September 2021.

“That compares to a pre-pandemic reading of 71%, which is pretty close to the long-term average of 73%,” Schenk said. “What that means is there’s not a lot of liquidity, or liquidity has been tightening very significantly over the course of the year and it certainly did in the month of September.”

Schenk pointed to loan quality and membership growth as two of the brighter trends seen in its September report.

Credit unions had 136.1 million members on Sept. 30, up 3.8% from a year earlier, which Schenk said was “incredible” compared with annual U.S. population growth of about 0.5%.

The 60-days-plus delinquency rate was 0.49% on Sept. 30, up from an all-time low of 0.42% on March 31 and running at about half the long-term average delinquency rate of 0.96%.

“Delinquency held steady near all-time lows,” Schenk said.


Credit unions gain larger share of auto loans as banks lose momentum

on 11:47 AM

 A surge in auto lending in the second quarter has given U.S. credit unions their biggest slice of the vehicle lending pie in the past five years. 

Recent data from the National Credit Union Administration showed that auto loans increased $58.7 billion, or 15.1% year over year, to $447.6 billion. Used-auto loans rose $43.2 billion, or 17.4%, to $291.0 billion, and new-auto loans rose $15.5 billion, or 11.0%, to $156.5 billion.

Experian’s State of the Automotive Finance Market report for the second quarter of 2022 shows that credit unions now have their highest total share of the auto lending market since 2017, at nearly 26%. A year ago that figure was just above 18%.

The secret to their success is offering low rates and underpricing the market, said John Toohig, head of whole loan trading at Raymond James.

“We’re in this really weird spot right now where [credit unions] have a lot of cash on hand and they’ve been using it to make loans at ultra-low rates,” Toohig said. “We’re still seeing them make 1%, 2% or 3% auto loans whereas the rest of the market is at 5.5% or 6.5%.”

For Pathways Financial in Columbus, the average auto loan has risen $2,775 year over year, which represents an 11.7% increase in average loans outstanding.

And that increase in auto lending may be coming at the expense of banks. Growth in lending to consumers buying cars and trucks decelerated to half the pace of the prior three months for U.S. banks in the second quarter.

Experian said banks’ share of the market fell from 30.3% a year ago to 27.9% in 2022. The remainder of the market is owned by the auto companies themselves, as well as fintechs.

One of the credit unions seeing increased auto loan demand is Truliant Federal Credit Union, a $4 billion-asset lender in Winston-Salem, North Carolina. Truliant had $1.1 billion in auto loans at the end of the second quarter, up from roughly $1 billion at the same point last year, plus another $620 million in indirect auto loans. 

Chris Murray, Truliant’s chief member experience officer, said auto loan demand has been strong, particularly through the indirect lending channel, which are made through a dealership rather than through the lender’s direct channels. 

“And we expect it to remain strong,” Murray said. “We are leveraging our strength in indirect [lending] and making investments in technology, processes and people in order to scale up our capabilities to generate more loans through the channel.” 

Most of the new business has been in used-auto loans, and Murray said funding loans fast is crucial when dealing with independent used-car dealerships. 

“They rely on our fast funding, especially in today’s market where they have to compete heavily to get inventory at auction. Cash is king for them; the faster they get funded, the faster they can get the next car on the lot to sell,” Murray said. 

And volumes have not slowed despite Truliant steadily raising rates. 

Other credit unions will have to pump the brakes on auto lending soon, asin some cases they have nearly a negative net interest margin on auto loans, Toohig said. “They’re going to have to raise their rates first just to slow down lending but also to take a look at the profitability of the portfolio,” he said.

Curtis Onofri, chief lending officer at Pathways Financial Credit Union, a $592 million-asset lender in Columbus, Ohio, said auto-lending growth has been fueled both by new purchases and refinancing.

There are several factors at work causing the rapid growth in auto lending — including increased prices, strong marketing, trailing rate increases and better inventory, Onofri said. 

“Prices in the new and used market have increased considerably over the past couple of years. This increase is translating into larger average loan amounts,” he said.

For Pathways, the average auto loan has risen $2,775 year over year, which represents an 11.7% increase in average loans outstanding.

Hanscom Federal Credit Union, a $1.9 billion-asset lender in Massachusetts, had $350 million in auto loans at the end of the second quarter plus another $231 million in indirect auto loans. 

Dan Picard, Hanscom’s senior vice president of consumer lending and collections, said that with the lack of incentives at automobile dealerships due to limited inventory, auto manufacturers’ financing arms are not offering appealing financing options. 

“As a result, the lending opportunities for credit unions has continued to be steady even in this rising rate environment,” he said. 

Toohig said those loans are also driving up credit union membership, but the question is whether the credit unions can then cross-sell those consumers on other products like credit cards or mortgages. 

It’s easier said than done, Toohig said. “Historically, that number [of cross-sales] is incredibly low.”

Experian: Lower Rates Help Credit Unions Grab Q2 Auto Loans

on 9:18 AM

 Offering lower interest rates was a major reason credit unions amassed a share of auto loan originations in the second quarter that set a record going back to at least 2007, an Experian analyst said.

Experian’s “State of the Automotive Finance Market” report for the second quarter released Aug. 25 showed credit unions produced 25.8% of the loans and leases from lenders in the three months ending June 30, up from 18.3% a year earlier and 22.1% in this year’s first quarter.

Credit unions were second only to banks’ 27.9% share and surpassed captive lenders’ 22.6% share in the second quarter.

The Experian report showed credit unions setting records for new and used auto originations going back to at least 2017.

But in an interview with CU Times on Aug. 26, Melinda Zabritski, Experian’s senior director of automotive financial solutions and the report’s author, said the volumes for the second quarter were higher than any period in her records, which go back to 2007.

“This is the highest we’ve seen credit union share,” Zabritski said.

The previous high for credit unions was about 23% of loans and leases for new and used vehicles in the third quarter of 2018.

Experian found credit unions’ biggest gain was in new cars, where the credit union share was 21.4% — nearly double the 11.2% from a year earlier and up from 15.8% in the first quarter. In used cars, the credit union share was 28.6% in the second quarter, up from 23.5% a year earlier and 26.5% in the first quarter.

Experian measures numbers of loans and leases, but the trend is similar when comparing portfolio balances measured by the Fed and CUNA.

The Fed and CUNA data showed credit unions held 33.7% of the nation’s auto loan balance as of June 30. The all-time high surpassed the previous record of 32.6% set in December 2018. The share was also up from 31.8% on March 31 and a low of 31.0% at the end of 2021’s second quarter.

Both Zabritski and CUNA Chief Economist Mike Schenk attributed much of the gain to credit unions offering lower interest rates to borrowers.

Schenk, in CUNA’s latest Economic Update video, said credit unions do a better job than banks and other lenders in providing the affordable credit people need to maintain reliable transportation to work.

“Getting to and from work is extremely important,” he said. “It helps ensure people’s financial well-being is on a firm footing.”

He cited DataTrac numbers that showed that credit unions were charging an average of 3.52% for a five-year loan of $38,000 on a new car on Aug. 22, compared with 4.72% by banks. Credit union borrowers had an average payment of $601, compared with $622 for banks, which Schenk said provided credit union members a saving of $1,247 over the life of the loan.

“Credit unions stand head and shoulders above other providers,” Schenk said.

Zabritski also found credit unions were offering lower rates in the second quarter.

“The other lender types actually have had a much more significant rate increase and the credit unions haven’t,” Zabritski said. “The credit union rates are significantly lower than the other lenders. Even on the used vehicle side, we’re talking over 200 basis points lower.”

“Credit union rates are actually down. Which is one reason average payments are lower at credit unions,” she said.

Zabritski said another factor benefitting credit unions is that captive lenders — the biggest share losers in the past year— have been offering few incentives since the supply of new vehicles has been constrained since early 2021.

Credit union share could wane, Zabritski said, but with new vehicle supplies constrained and with few incentives from captives, “you don’t have that, that competition on rate on the new vehicle side.”

Meanwhile, Jason Haley, chief investment officer for ALM First of Dallas, said credit unions need to be sure they’re not undercharging for loans.

Haley, speaking during Callahan & Associates’ quarterly Trendwatch webinar on Wednesday, said lending committees need to be constantly monitoring conditions, especially in volatile markets.

Credit union committees that meet monthly for loan pricing can be acting on data that’s turned. “Things can get stale really fast,” he said.

“It’s critical to maintain disciplined asset pricing when you’re in a volatile market,” Haley said. “Mispriced loans and poor asset pricing can definitely lead to liquidity issues down the road.”

Zabritski said another change in the market is that most borrowers have improved their credit scores since the COVID-19 pandemic began in March 2020.

“We’ve seen a continual migration in credit scores over the last several years,” she said. “We have a much larger percentage of the market that is prime.”

For example, people who took out a loan in 2017 have seen their credit scores rise 20 to 50 points.

Another change is that people who bought a used vehicle in 2017 often have seen their loan-to-value ratios fall.

Zabritski compared the original 2017 manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP) on the top 10 used vehicles that people buy today (yes, mostly trucks) with their current used car value.

“In almost every case, the current used value is higher than the original MSRP,” she said. “So you’re finding situations where the vehicle sitting in your driveway is worth more today than it was when you bought it.”

So if you bought the car for $25,000, its worth now as a trade in is $25,000 and you owe just $15,000 on it, “you’ve got $10,000 in equity.”

Demand for personal loans pressures banks, fintechs, credit unions

on 9:54 AM

 Banks were already under interest rate pressure on personal loans from firms including SoFi and Marcus, and new data reveals that credit unions are also taking a larger chunk of that lending pie.

Credit union loan balances rose 2.3% in May and unsecured personal loans led the way with 3% monthly growth, according to a report that CUNA Mutual Group, an insurance and financial services company that monitors the credit union industry, published this month. 

"Many credit union members are taking on debt before interest rates rise further [to combat inflation] and to consolidate other loans. We expect this trend to continue for the next six months before slowing in 2023, when interest rates will be reaching their peak," said Steve Rick, chief economist for CUNA Mutual Group.

Unsecured lending grew 13% in the first six months of 2022, compared to 0% annual growth in the first six months of 2021, Rick said.

One of the credit unions seeing more applications for unsecured loans is North Country Federal Credit Union in South Burlington, Vermont.

Personal loans are up 7.2% year-to-date for the $908 million-asset credit union, according to CEO Bob Morgan. But the increase may not be due entirely to new borrowers walking through the doors.

"I think the reason consumer loans are growing in 2022 more rapidly is due to fewer payoffs from mortgage refinances rather than a surge of originations," Morgan said. "This causes a slower churn for the portfolio and a more rapid rate of growth."

Morgan said personal lending is a "highly competitive" market among banks, other credit unions and fintechs. "Players like SoFi and Marcus have as much influence or more than credit unions on rates," he said.

Banks that are active in this space are seeing the effect of new entrants. Stephen Varckette, president and CEO of Andover Bank in Andover, Ohio, said personal loan activity has held at a "pretty normal" pace for the $581 million-asset bank due to the increased competition.

"There are a ton of non-traditional options these days for consumers," Varckette said. "I assume they are gaining in popularity."

A combination of factors — the elimination of federal COVID-19 assistance, the rising costs of basic needs and smaller pool of disposable income — is forcing more consumers to seek personal loans to make ends meet.

But those borrowers are scrambling to find the best deals as rates continue to rise.

The average personal loan interest rate has risen from 10.41% at the beginning of May 2022 to 10.60% as of July 20th, 2022, according to Bankrate.com. Personal loan interest rates are likely to continue rising if the Fed raises the prime rate again at its next meeting, the company said. 

When interest rates on deposits are well below inflation, there is little incentive to save. In fact, buying something today may be cheaper than borrowing the money, said Tim Scholten, founder and president of the credit union and community bank consultancy Visible Progress.

So why would that lead to more unsecured debt?

One alternative would be refinancing a mortgage to take equity out, but this is less attractive today due to increased rates — making unsecured debt the next best option, Scholten said.

"Rather than increasing interest on their entire mortgage, it is more cost-effective to take out a higher-rate unsecured loan," Scholten said. "If I know that things are going to cost 10% more next year than now, it makes sense to buy now with borrowed money and pay it back with inflated dollars."

Inflation really kicked into high gear in 2022, but salaries haven't adjusted much yet. At the same time, property values jumped dramatically, and property tax increases are taking a bigger bite out of paychecks, Scholten said.  

As a result, many consumers need more money at the end of their month and are using debt to solve the issue.

"I fully expect this trend to continue as long as banks and credit unions continue to offer unsecured loans at reasonable rates," Scholten said. "Inflation gives consumers lots of incentive to spend and little incentive to save under the current conditions."

Vincent Hui, managing director at Cornerstone Advisors, said the firm has noted an uptick in credit card usage — an alternative to taking out more loans — but nowhere near the level that secured loans such as auto and mortgage have reached lately.

"Inflation is a factor, as it is decreasing discretionary spend and people needing to tap into credit," Hui said. "Either way, overall lending will likely slow as interest rates rise, making monthly payments less affordable for folks."

Scholten said the popularity of buy now/pay later loans undoubtedly is also having some impact on the personal loan space for credit unions and banks, although he said exactly how much is tough to gauge. 

"I think BNPL growth is an indicator of the current consumer mindset," Scholten said.

Filling Your Mortgage Pipeline By Marketing To Millennials

on 9:38 AM

 For years, “millennial” has been a loaded term. Older generations in particular tend to hear “millennial” and picture entitled teenagers with no inclination toward investment or future planning. And there’s some truth to that — thanks to a number of societal circumstances during millennials’ formative years (think the Great Recession, college tuition inflation and now, the COVID-19 pandemic), many millennials started adulthood a bit behind where their parents were at the same age, at least in terms of finances and lifestyle. So, in years past, millennials and mortgages weren't always a natural pair.

But now, millennials are all grown up. Born between 1981-1996, the youngest members of this generation are 26 years old, and the oldest are in their early forties. And thanks to favorable socioeconomic conditions in America during their birth-year range, they have surpassed the baby boomers as the largest generation.

As such, millennials currently have more spending power than any other generation, and that spending power aligns with common lifestyle changes for their age range. Many are beginning to get married, have children, and tire of the frustrations of long-term renting. Although they are known for changing companies and even careers much more often than any previous generation, many millennials now have enough workforce experience that their savings, credit scores, and overall financial health would support a first-time home purchase.

How can you, as a credit union with a large number of millennial members, start to encourage millennials towards home ownership? Here are four primary tactics that can assist you in reaching millennial members and driving mortgage volume.

1. Target messaging. Consider mortgage marketing campaigns that specifically engage millennials. Because many adults in this age group still consider home ownership unattainable, they may tune out traditional mortgage marketing materials.

2. Become a financial awareness resource. Step one is encouraging millennials to recognize that they can purchase a house. Step two is teaching them how. By creating a bank of resources for mortgage-seeking millennials, you can not only give them the confidence they need to move forward in the mortgage application process but can build their trust in your institution. Resource recommendations include information on different types of loans, down payments, and closing costs, and the mortgage and homebuying process in general.

3. Provide housing market education. Real estate conditions are always changing. Current inventory is very low, and interest rates are rising. That means millennials who are considering home ownership need to start preparing now. Educate your members on getting a bona fide pre-approval today so they can move swiftly when their dream house hits the market. If they aren’t ready to put in an offer immediately, the property is likely to go under contract very quickly.

4. Invest in your technology and your team; But don't forget the human touch. It’s well-known that millennials prefer self-service across the board, including when it comes to pre-approvals, real estate searches, and mortgage industry research, so it’s important that your credit union has the tech stack to allow them this independence, providing a full digital experience from a mortgage portal to calculators and rates on the website. However, your services can’t stop at cutting-edge technology. Millennials also value human interaction to address more complex issues or individual challenges. Don’t forget the importance of having real, knowledgeable, helpful people standing by to assist millennials (and every other generation) in their mortgage journeys.

Increasing supply constraints as well as the rising interest rate environment are likely to make 2022 a fast-paced, high-stakes year when it comes to homebuying. Ensure your millennials are prepared to make a move when the time is right, and turn to you for their mortgage needs by getting in front of their education and encouragement today.



Credit Crunch Looms for Auto Lenders as Paycheck-to-Paycheck Pressures Intensify

on 9:29 AM

 The credit crunch looms for auto lenders — perhaps most imminently for those lending to the subprime market.

To that end, and as noted Tuesday (Aug. 2) by sites such as Seeking Alpha, Credit Acceptance, which helps auto dealers offer vehicle financing — including to consumers who have less-than-stellar credit profiles — has sounded a warning about near-term prospects of seeing timely payments on recently-extended loans.

The key pressures are showing up in metrics where collection rates have declined, to a recent 67.1% and where the company had given a forecast of 67.6%.

Credit Acceptance said in its earnings release Monday (Aug. 1) that the forecasts applied to consumer loans that had been assigned this year. The firm also said that the decrease would impact cash flows. And in a bit of granular detail, Credit Acceptance said in its release that for loans that had been assigned from Jan. 1 to March 31, the forecasted collection percentage was 66.4%. Initially, that percentage had been 67.2%.

The forecast miss — as well as commentary on the Credit Acceptance conference call — helped send the stock down 9% on the day, and lending peers such as Ally Financial were down mid-single digit percentage points.

During the conference call with analysts, Credit Acceptance Chief Treasury Officer Doug Busk said “the end of stimulus and supplemental unemployment benefits” helped impact loan performance. He also noted that inflation had been taking its toll, even as consumers have been “working through” the savings that had been accumulated during earlier stimulus payment activity.

Consumers, he said later in the call, have seen at least some impact on their ability to pay amid an inflationary environment that means they must spend more on gas and food.

The read-across seems troubling for the paycheck-to-paycheck economy at large.

Many consumers in the United States — at 61% — have little, if anything, left over after paying the monthly bills. Those recurring obligations include auto loans. Drill down into the demographics where consumers earn less than $50,000, and 77% live paycheck to paycheck. A third of them have difficulty paying their bills.

58% of Consumers Live Paycheck to Paycheck, up From 54% a Year Ago

Research also found that 13% of all consumers — an estimated 33.5 million individuals — spent more than what they earned in the past six months, up from 12% in May. Average savings among all consumers dropped 8%, from $11,724 in May to $10,757 in June. For consumers living paycheck to paycheck with issues paying their bills, that cash cushion has dropped from a peak of more than $4,000 to a recent $2,460.

 Savings Cushion Dwindles for Lower Income Paycheck-to-Paycheck Economy

When faced with the choice between putting food on the table, and on keeping gas in the car — stretching the dollars in other words — consumers will triage their bills. And paying the car note on time may take a backseat for now.

Lenders' use of rent data in loan decisions helps homebuyers, but dangers lurk

on 11:04 AM

 As Ken Riemer, an Alabama attorney who does pro bono work, recently got ready to meet with residents of the homeless shelter in his neighborhood, he assumed most of their questions would be outside his consumer finance practice, and would perhaps ask about government benefits, family law or criminal issues.

“I was shocked to find out that most of the problems had to do with credit reporting — right down my alley,” he said. Six of the 10 people he met with that day were living in the shelter solely because a rent-related credit reporting issue had shut them out of the housing market. In some cases, this was due to a single late payment.

“These are folks with enough income to pay market, nonsubsidized rent, but were nevertheless forced to move their families into a homeless shelter simply because their credit history disqualified them from renting,” Riemer said.

 Lenders are now making more use of rent data in credit decisions. The data itself is becoming more available from credit bureaus and other data providers, and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are now willing to buy loans that rely in part on this data, provided lenders obtain consumers’ consent and that they only use the data in a positive way.

For people who have a low credit score or no credit score, lenders’ use of rent payment data in credit decisions can open doors. Lenders can see that a potential borrower has been paying her rent consistently for the past two years, and decide she’s responsible enough to handle a loan. 

But if not done with care, the use of rent payment data in credit decisions could harm some consumers, especially the most vulnerable, said Chi Chi Wu, staff attorney at the National Consumer Law Center. 

“Black and brown and consumers of color are disproportionately the ones affected by things like evictions,” Wu said. “While they tend to be renters, a lot of them also struggle with rent, especially during the pandemic.”

At the homeless shelter in Riemer’s neighborhood, in some cases, what actually happened is in dispute. A landlord decides a renter didn't give proper notice and asks for an extra month’s rent. The renter thinks she doesn’t owe it and already put money down on a new place. In one case, a landlord claimed a renter was responsible for damage to an air conditioning unit, while the renter insisted she was not.

The heightened concern among renters is that landlords are consolidating and becoming larger and more powerful.

“The bigger companies have systems that allow for less and less deviation by human beings,” Riemer said. “So if the system thinks you're late, whether you really are or not, then that's what gets reported to the credit bureaus.” 

Tenants who’ve had issues such as temporary unemployment, perhaps due to pandemic-related shutdowns, or a stretch of bad luck such as a family member who needs care, can also be affected.

“Over the long haul, these folks have enough income to be responsible tenants and otherwise pay their bills,” Riemer said. “But because of systematic institutional automated credit reporting, that follows you for seven years.” 

Riemer tries to help resolve these types of  disputes. “But where the delinquencies are accurate, there’s not much to do other than wait out the seven-year period,” he said. “I’m keenly aware of the outsized role credit reporting can play in keeping folks in difficult financial situations in general, but I was shocked to see a direct connection to something as extreme as homelessness."

For the most part, rent payment data is not reported to credit bureaus today, noted Karan Kaul, principal research associate at the Urban Institute. Less than 5% of renters’ payment history is reported to the bureaus, he said. 

“In cases when it is reported, it is usually when someone has fallen behind on their rent payment,” Kaul said. “Landlords haven't historically reported rent payments to the credit bureaus if you've been making your payments, but then the day you fall behind and you miss a month or two of payments, that's when you get reported. It just seems very, very unfair.”

Positive uses of rent data

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have both agreed to buy home loans that take into account rent payment data. Lenders can extract information about a potential borrower’s 12-month rent payment history from their bank accounts, with the consumer’s permission, allowing them to approve people they might otherwise deny. Fannie Mae began accepting such loans in September; Freddie Mac will start July 10.

In late June, Fannie Mae reported that since it began allowing the use of positive rent payment data, more than 2,000 loan applications have become eligible for loans that otherwise would not have been. Of these, approximately 41% of the borrowers identified themselves as Black or Latino/Hispanic.

U.S. Bank is one lender using renters’ data. As at most banks, its loan officers have long considered borrowers’ rent payment history in credit decisions.

In September, the bank began doing this in an automated way. It uses mortgage origination software from Blend that incorporates rent payment history from customers’ bank statements. 

Having this process automated is a game changer, according to Tom Wind, executive vice president, consumer lending at U.S. Bank.

 “One of the issues that's existed in trying to qualify a customer with rent data is that you have to collect the documents,” Wind said. “You have to get canceled checks and bring them in. Not many landlords report rent to the credit bureaus, so it's a very manual process. The really nice breakthrough here is using bank statement information in the normal credit decision process. It’s efficient for the lenders, it speeds up the process for the borrowers and I think it brings into the mainstream this use of nontraditional data that can result in better outcomes for customers.”

U.S. Bank doesn’t ask applicants for a bank statement. Instead, it asks who the customer banks with, and connects to those accounts through Plaid, Finicity or another data aggregator Blend works with. It then pulls in 12 months’ worth of rent payment history. 

“I only know of positive outcomes from this,” Wind said.

Over time, he expects more opportunities will arise to bring alternative data into loan decisions. 

“We think this is a really good step in the right direction of doing what we're all focused on doing, which is finding out ways that qualified people who are getting excluded because of the way the rules are structured, can qualify because in the end, we're all about sustainable homeownership,” Wind said. 

Using alternative data like rent payments is broadening U.S. Bank’s customer base and making homeownership possible for the first time for a lot of people, Wind said. 

“It's doing it in a way that we feel is really responsible, because it's not just broadening the guidelines, it's very specifically picking up people who have a history of being able to afford a payment and saying, ‘You could afford that rent payment, you can do the mortgage,’ ” Wind said. 

Wu approves of this approach to rent data, not only because it is positive only and consumers have to opt in, but because the data bypasses the credit bureau, she said.

“That way it can't hurt because this data isn't being dumped into the credit bureau file,” Wu said. “So it can't hurt in terms of use by landlords. It can help those who are ready to make that next step to homeownership without hurting struggling, vulnerable renters who are probably not ready for home ownership anytime soon.” 

Pankaj Jain is originally from India and started his career at Citi. The job brought him to the U.S., where it took him three years to get a credit card.

“I would apply and they would say, ‘not enough credit history,” Jain recalled. “I would get a decline letter, then I would apply again. They said ‘too many inquiries’ because I was desperate to get it and applying again and again.” He finally got a card from Capital One. 

If any lender had looked at his rent and utility payments, it would have approved him right away, Jain believes. 

“There are about 40 million people like me who are thin file, no file or living in the margins,” Jain said. 

Jain is now CEO of Scienaptic, a maker of software that lets lenders use AI and alternative data such as rent payments in their decisions. It uses what Jain describes as a waterfall method.

For people who qualify for a loan using traditional underwriting, the software uses data from the credit bureau file. For people for whom such data does not exist, Scienaptic makes available other information such as rent payment history. Rent data comes from providers like LexisNexis or Clarity Services, which is owned by Experian.  

Using this additional information, “We are able to pick up those 20%, 30% of the people who are diamonds in the rough from that and approve them,” Jain said.

Where the danger lies

What consumer advocates worry about is what could happen in the future, if guardrails like requiring consumer consent and only using the rent data positively don’t exist. 

“If this information is available in the credit bureaus’ credit files, then it could be accessible to all sorts of predators and they might use it to make decisions,” Kaul of the Urban Institute said. 

Kaul understands why consumer advocates are reluctant to have rent data widely used because they don't want some of these consumers to get penalized, as many are today.  But he also says the potential benefits of the positive use of rent data far outweigh the downsides.

Wu says that in the use of rent data in loan decisions, the devil is in the details.

“It matters a lot how the rent data is used,” she said. If only positive rent data is used with the consumer’s permission, it’s helpful.

Another mantra Wu uses for alternative data is, “do no harm.”

“The harm here comes from including rent payment data on a monthly basis, positive and negative — what they call full-file reporting to the big three credit bureaus,” Wu said. “That's where it could hurt.”

What’s in a name? A credit union’s LGBTQ program finds a wider audience

on 11:21 AM

 Credit unions that tailor services for members of the LGBTQ community may find an unmet need among other demographics as well.

Michigan State University Federal Credit Union in East Lansing, Michigan, is nearing the finish line on development of a feature within its digital banking platforms and card offerings that will allow members to set a preferred name and set of pronouns. The program, which is expected to go live before the end of the third quarter, is like many others that allow credit card users, for example, to put their preferred name on the card.

While such services are developed with a transgender audience in mind, they also appeal to other marginalized groups such as international students or indigenous persons, said Amanda Denney, director of diversity, equity and inclusion for the $6.8 billion-asset MSU FCU, which serves students and staff of the university, as well as employees of the state.

“We have a lot of international students that come over and actually pick Americanized names, and they do this for a number of reasons, but that project is helping that group of people too,” Denney said. “When we hear preferred names and pronouns, people automatically jump to LGBTQ+, but there is such a huge impact [with this project] across the board with really anyone.”

The credit union first explored the concept internally in 2020 with the inclusion of pronouns in staff email signatures and editing of employment documents wherever legally allowed to record a new chosen name. It also incorporated educational material into its trainings on diversity, equity and inclusion to explain the significance of MSUFCU’s change.

Banks and credit unions that provide such products must also make sure their staff are properly instructed on using preferred names and pronouns in every customer interaction.

“Our goal is to allow everyone to be their full, authentic self and that’s really hard to do if you’re consistently being affronted with microaggressions by being misgendered [and] mislabeled,” Denney said. “Very specifically for the LGBTQ+ community, especially individuals that are nonbinary, or transgender, this can be a really important tool for them.”

Organizations such as Daylight, a New York-based digital banking provider for the LGBTQ community, and Mastercard have also launched preferred-name projects with the aim to better serve transgender and nonbinary consumers who endure negative encounters due to a difference between their legal and preferred names.

Some credit unions that already have similar initiatives in place are working to now offer more tailored services in lending for consumers seeking to undergo gender affirming procedures, as well as other LGTBQ funding needs.

Linda Bodie, chief executive and innovator at the $44 million-asset Element Federal Credit Union in Charleston, West Virginia, said she has worked alongside local pride organizations to better understand the needs of its LGBTQ members and determine which areas are most underserved.

“We have specialized lending for adoption, weddings, surgery [and really] anything particular to the LGBTQ+ community … We work closely with our local pride organization, Rainbow Pride of West Virginia, to identify our community needs,” Bodie said.

Element is planning to further its commitment to aiding local members through collaborative housing and employment partnerships with local realtors, pride organizations and other groups to address instances of discrimination during the search for a home.

In addition to her 24-year tenure as Element’s CEO, Bodie helped to organize and launch the LGBTQ credit union support association CU Pride in June 2020, which now has more than 1,200 members nationwide and is dedicated to progressing inclusivity within the industry and offering educational toolkits and opportunities for collaboration.

“With our tenets, which is to create educational opportunities for the credit union system … It gives them the opportunity to understand the community and really push towards our mission, which is to get the entire industry to embrace the LGBTQ+,” said Zach Christensen, co-founder of CU Pride and director of diversity, equity and inclusion and communications at Mitchell Stankovic. 

“Organizationally, credit unions are not queer or LGBTQ, but credit unions can be organizational allies,” through better education, he said. 

A Pew Research Center survey of 10,188 U.S. adults in May found that 5.1% of those under 30 reported they identify as transgender or nonbinary, with the share of adults knowing someone who is either transgender or nonbinary growing to 44% in 2022 from 37% in 2017.

Experts from trade organizations such as the National Association of Federally-Insured Credit Unions and the Credit Union National Association say that institutions need to closely analyze research and feedback from the data gathered or otherwise risk new programs becoming ineffectual.

“One of the things that we’re doing is becoming more intentional about this work and about listening to our communities,” said Samira Salem, vice president of diversity, equity and inclusion for CUNA, which is a supporting organization of CU Pride.

Better serving LGBTQ communities means developing products and services specific to their needs, Salem said. “It is in the DNA of credit unions to serve the underserved [and] the marginalized, and it is our value system.”

But beyond ensuring the success of the new services, credit unions aiming to stand as allies of those belonging to the LGBTQ community must also ensure that their efforts go beyond marketing campaigns and lead to change within the organizations as well.

“It’s not just about marketing and sort of this outward-facing messaging about what you are as an organization [and] what you stand for; you have to put your money where your mouth is, so to speak … and demonstrate that you have diversity, for example, on your board of directors and within your management,” said Ann Petros (formerly Kossachev), who works as the vice president of regulatory affairs for NAFCU.

Financial inclusion bill could reignite credit union-bank conflict

on 10:01 AM

 The trend of credit unions buying banks has grabbed a lot of attention in recent years, but two other key issues have raised tensions between the two industries. 

Bankers have long opposed attempts by credit unions to expand their field of membership and  their business lending capabilities, but proposed legislation would open the door to both. The bill, H.R. 7003, the Expanding Financial Access for Underserved Communities Act, was approved last week by the House Committee on Financial Services by a 27-22 vote.

Introduced by the committee’s chair, Maxine Waters, D-Calif., the bill would allow all federal credit unions to apply to the National Credit Union Administration to expand their field of membership to include underserved communities, including those without a branch within 10 miles.

It would also exempt loans made by credit unions to businesses in those areas from the credit union member business lending cap. Under current law, credit unions are restricted from lending more than 12.25% of total assets to member businesses.

According to the Credit Union National Association, the bill’s member business lending exemption would apply to 2,207 federally insured credit unions that are not already exempt due other designations. 

CUNA also points out that there are no provisions in the bill restricting banks from opening operations in those underserved areas.

Still, the bankers are not amused.

In a letter to the House Financial Services Committee, the American Bankers Association said the legislation will not deliver on the “purported” objective of improving banking access to underserved communities but instead expand taxpayer subsidies of business lending.

According to the NCUA, commercial loans made by credit unions increased $17.3 billion, or 18.4%, to $111.7 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021 from a year earlier.

“What H.R. 7003 seems to provide is the ability for credit unions to expand out-of-market, which contradicts the credit union purpose of serving well-defined local communities and small groups of consumers of modest means,” the letter states. “The legislation also creates a major new loophole in the credit union business lending cap, long one of the most controversial issues in financial services. Bankers remain staunchly opposed to efforts to gut this limitation.”

But credit unions see the proposal primarily as a way to fill a gaping void.

The proposed changes are essential to increasing access to “safe, fair and affordable” financial services in rural communities, communities of color and other underserved places, said Todd Harper, chairman of the NCUA, in a press release.

“They would also advance financial inclusion within our nation’s financial system,” he said.

CUNA said the bill would give communities, small businesses and individuals who have lost access to affordable financial services — or perhaps have never had them — easier access to federal credit unions.

According to CUNA research, more than 750 census tracts in the U.S. are financial deserts, and a net 7,800+ bank branches closed between January 2005 and March 2021. During the same period, more than 1,400 net credit union branches opened.

But the business lending component is the key to the legislation, said Patrick Keefe, a credit union industry observer, former industry advocate and editor of the Regulatory Report.

Any relief from the 12.25% cap would be a big win for credit unions, he said.

“That’s potentially a big shift for credit unions, who are looking for new revenue sources whenever possible,” he said. “The exemption means they could start making more MBLs without constriction.”

Jason Stverak, CUNA’s deputy chief advocacy officer for federal government affairs, said the trade group is working with lawmakers on both sides of the aisle to build consensus around the legislation. 

“Whether the policy advances on its own or along with other legislation is up to House lawmakers, but we’re optimistic we’ll see movement this Congress,” Stverak said.

But according to Keefe, the outlook for the legislation is "challenging, to say the least,” he said. The bill faces a big uphill climb and will likely have to be brought up again in the next Congress.

He pointed to CUNA’s own letter to the House committee members in which CUNA said the only known opposition to the legislation comes from the banking industry, “and their opposition to this legislation reveals their true colors: first, they abandon underserved communities and then they try to keep credit unions out,” the letter states.

“Yeah, that’s all: just opposition from the banking industry. No big deal,” Keefe joked. “Except, it is. Banks clearly see this as an expansion of credit union powers — providing more services to people who aren’t now eligible for membership — and credit union commercial lending, which banks are out to impede, vigorously.”

It will take a pretty big push by the credit unions to get the legislation enacted, according to Keefe, and he is not convinced that most credit unions really care about more business lending authority. “Even though they probably should,” he said.

Higher interest, rising prices, fewer listings: A bad mix for mortgages

on 1:04 PM

 Rising interest rates and elevated prices have caused sales of new homes to drop, tightening the mortgage market for banks and credit unions.

In addition, pandemic-related supply-chain problems put a strain on the supply of lumber and other building materials over the past two years,  making it more difficult to put new inventory on the market. 

Those factors pushed housing prices to new highs in several major markets. Home prices rose 2.2% in February from January and 20% year over year, according to the CoreLogic Home Price Index. 

Many new homebuyers were forced to the sidelines as a result. Home sales in March were 12.6% lower than last year.

“While the spike in interest rates is undoubtedly having some impact, construction delays appear to be the main culprit,” Curt Long, chief economist and vice president of research for the National Association of Federally-Insured Credit Unions, said in a press release.

As interest rates have risen in response to inflation, refinancing activity is drying up. Freddie Mac said the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.27% for the weekly period that ended May 5, up sharply from 2.96% a year earlier and the highest it's been since 2009. The higher rates have begun to curb demand for home purchases, too.

The $1.9 billion-asset Hanscom Federal Credit Union in Massachusetts was one of many midsized lenders across the U.S. that saw first mortgages dip from the end of 2020 to the end of last year. 

Hanscom’s president and CEO, Peter Rice, said lenders who took high-risk applicants and lowered credit qualification standards probably should be worried entering this market of rapid interest rate increases. 

“We’ve seen this play out time and time again,” he said.

Rice said that despite lower home inventory, he expects Hanscom’s first-mortgage portfolio to remain steady, although he said a “dramatic” industrywide slowdown is certain.

“I’d be very worried about mortgage brokers who, due to the record refinance numbers, have become dependent on that market,” he said. “The interest rate increase will surely bring their business — and business model — to a screeching halt.”

The slowing of the refinance business is expected to result in a 30% year-over-year drop in mortgage originations for the $7.2 billion-asset Wright-Patt Credit Union in Beavercreek, Ohio. 

Eric Bugger, Wright-Patt’s chief lending officer, said the credit union has a team of about 45 employees in its mortgage originations area and the credit union is seeing some competitors do “crazy things” with interest rates, causing Wright-Patt to lose some loans. 

“That always happens, though,” Bugger said. “We’re combating that by keeping a close eye on market rates and trying to come up with new products that fit our members’ needs. We can’t always have the lowest rate. Someone can always undercut us.”

Banks, too, are warning of a sharp slowdown in mortgage activity as interest rates climb and housing supply shrinks.

Megabanks such as Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase reported lower mortgage volumes in the first quarter. Regional banks such as Truist Financial and Citizens Financial Group delivered similar results to investors for the quarter. 

“The mortgage origination market experienced one of its largest quarterly declines that I can remember,” Charlie Scharf, Wells Fargo's president and CEO, said on the company’s earnings call last month. Rising interest rates will likely have further “negative impact on mortgage volumes," he said. The $1.9 trillion-asset bank confirmed last month it was laying off a number of home lending employees due to current market conditions. 

Bugger said the key will be having a balanced loan portfolio and in some cases steering members toward a purchase with a payment they can afford. Otherwise, customers may need to wait a little longer to increase their down payment so the monthly outlay can remain manageable. 

But many potential buyers are taking a wait-and-see approach.

“The combination of swift home-price growth and the fastest mortgage-rate increase in over 40 years is finally affecting purchase demand,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.  

For the week that ended April 29, home purchase loan application volume increased 2.5% from the prior week but was 50% lower compared with a year earlier, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Its refinance index inched up 0.2% from the prior week after falling for seven straight weeks.  

“The drop in purchase applications was evident across all loan types. Prospective homebuyers have pulled back this spring, as they continue to face limited options of homes for sale along with higher costs from increasing mortgage rates and prices,” said Joel Kan, the MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting. “The recent decrease in purchase applications is an indication of potential weakness in home sales in the coming months.” 

Community banks that developed mortgage operations to generate fees on originations and diversify revenue also are warning about the specter of a sustained slowdown.  

The $12.7 billion-asset FB Financial Corp. in Nashville, Tennessee, reported a first-quarter loss for its mortgage division. 

“A confluence of events has created a challenging operating environment in the mortgage industry,” FB President and CEO Christopher T. Holmes said on an earnings call last month.

“We do expect continued tough sledding for mortgage,” he added. “We're reducing our mortgage origination capacity and the corresponding size of our operational functions to operate through the current forecasted down environment.”

Toyota will lose RAV4, Land Cruiser, Lexus output on quake shutdowns; chip maker Renesas resumes partial production

on 9:03 AM

 Toyota Motor Corp. will suspend operations at more than half its operations across Japan and is studying potential disruption to overseas production because of supply chain interruptions triggered by a large earthquake that rattled the country this week.

Toyota will halt production for three days starting next week on 18 lines at 11 factories in Japan, out of a total of 28 lines in 14 factories operated nationwide, the automaker said on Friday.

Toyota said it will lose about 20,000 vehicles of output from the quake-related shutdowns.

On top of already announced slowdowns triggered by a cyberattack and microchip shortages, Toyota’s Japan operations will be down 50,000 units in total for March, from its original plan.

The latest suspensions will reduce output of Toyota-brand models including the Crown and Yaris passenger cars as well as the RAV4, Harrier, C-HR crossovers and Land Cruiser SUV.

Also impacted will be the Lexus LS and IC sedans, RC and LC coupes and NX crossover.

Toyota declined to identify which parts supplies were affected by the earthquake.

Toyota's shutdown comes just a day after it cut output from April to June in the face of growing supply chain uncertainty and the lingering impact of the global semiconductor shortage and COVID-19 pandemic.

Toyota slashed global output in April  by 17 percent to 750,000 units. That outlook did not account for potential disruption from the earthquake or the war in Ukraine.

The 7.4-magnitude earthquake, which struck shortly after 11:30 p.m. local time on Wednesday, was centered off the Pacific coast from the northeastern city of Sendai, in the same region throttled by the 2011 earthquake-tsunami disaster that caused meltdowns at the Fukushima nuclear power plant.

The latest quake triggered a tsunami, caused blackouts as far away as Tokyo, derailed the country’s famed bullet train and buckled highways that serve as critical supply arteries.

The earthquake killed three people and injured 190, Japanese public broadcaster NHK reported.

Suppliers slowly restarting

On Friday, suppliers near the quake zone were slowly bringing operations back online.

Critical semiconductor maker Renesas Electronics Corp. said it had resumed partial test-run production at two of three plants near the quake zone. Those plants, its Naka and Takasaki factories, should reach full pre-earthquake production capacity on March 23.

The third Renesas plant that was affected, its Yonezawa factory, restarted all production processes on March 18 and expects to return to normal operational levels on March 20.

All three plants, which make chips for the automotive sector, were automatically shut down when the quake struck. Any long-term interruption at Renesas could have broadsided a global automotive industry already reeling from the worldwide semiconductor shortage.

Renesas emerged as a weak link in the 2011 earthquake, when its Naka plant was thrown offline for months.

Despite Shortage Of New Cars, Automotive Analyst Sees Reasons to Be Optimistic

on 10:52 AM

 What has traditionally been radio’s largest ad category remains challenged due to a lack of new cars to sell. With vehicle supply constrained by the ongoing chip shortage, the outlook for the next year or so is for status quo.

Tyson Jominy, VP of Data & Analytics at J.D. Power, says he expects only a marginal improvement in inventory through most of 2022. “Things are pretty constrained, and we're not going to see much of a change for the next 15 months or so,” he told Radio Advertising Bureau members last week during “Radio Works for Automotive,” the second in a series devoted to the crucial ad category. J.D. Power’s latest forecast doesn’t see supply ramping back up until the end of third quarter 2022 and into the fourth quarter.

J.D. Power’s latest “U.S. Automotive Outlook” shows new vehicle sales had recovered from the pandemic by April 2020, when the Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate reached 18.3 million That was the fourth best SAAR in automotive history. But as the semiconductor shortage took hold this past spring and summer, that crucial SAAR metric plummeted to 12.2 million in September 2021.

Now inventory, not demand, is determining sales. “Our inventories have never been this low,” Jominy said. “We're basically selling everything on the ground every three and a half weeks.” Normally that would take three months.

With demand far exceeding supply, the auto industry lost 2.5 million sales last year, and is on track to miss another 1.5 million in 2021, J.D. Power data show. That’s driven the average price of a vehicle sky high to $42,802.

Despite all the disruption, Jominy sees several reasons to be optimistic. “We've got enough consumers sitting on the sidelines that are waiting for vehicles that are waiting for conditions to change,” he told the RAB crowd. “And as we get more vehicles, we'll just continue to tap into that unmet need that we have. And that's a source of optimism for us.” With the industry currently in a mode of very high profit and low sales, it requires a change in how automakers and dealers target new customers, Jominy said.

With supply scarce, dealers have been a tough sell for ad sellers, with many choosing to delay campaigns until they have more cars on the lot to sell. But that shouldn’t diminish the resolve of ad sellers. “Continue to be there in front of them, saying they've got to advertise in your medium, because it is so critical to auto sales,” Jominy suggested. “Cars and radio advertising is like peanut butter and jelly.”

However, the messaging that sellers suggest to dealers needs to reflect the expectations of Millennials, who are now the No. 1 car buying demographic in the country. That message should convey the ease of buying a car today, with most dealers able to do the entire process digitally from the customer’s kitchen table or living room sofa. “There's a lot of benefits to advertise about where we are right now,” Jominy said. Other key messages to reinforce in advertising are price protection guarantees and that even though they don’t see the vehicle they’re looking for online doesn’t mean the dealer can’t get it for them.


Credit union membership growing faster after pandemic slowdown

on 9:46 AM

 Credit unions, which have historically relied on branches and auto lending to bring in new members, saw both of those channels shrink over the pandemic. But they are adapting, and growth is starting to rebound.

CUNA Mutual Group, an insurance and financial services company that monitors the credit union industry, reported that through November, credit unions added 4.7 million new members in 2021, an increase of 23.6% from the corresponding 11-month period in 2020. And the group expects the momentum to carry into 2022.

In many situations, membership growth has been a case of the haves and have nots. Credit unions with assets of at least $1 billion saw membership rise 8.7% on a year-over year basis at the end of the third quarter while those with assets of at least $10 million but less than $50 million saw membership decline 14.4%, according to data from the National Credit Union Administration.

The credit unions that are bucking the trend and seeing membership rise are the ones that kept up with the times, particularly in how they relied on branch interactions and auto lending.

In an age of uncertainty, member experience matters even more

COVID-19 is a wake-up call to credit unions on why a digital-first approach is critical.

"We adapted to a virtual world and have seen some solid results," said Shane London, president and CEO of Deseret First Credit Union in West Valley City, Utah. The credit union’s membership rose 2%, to 72,509, at the end of 2021, from a year earlier. But this new figure exceeds its prepandemic membership of 71,158 at the end of 2019.

The $922 million-asset institution is “moving along in a pretty steady manner” when it comes to membership growth after membership fell in 2020, London said.

Cars and branches

Some credit unions have been forced to temporarily close branches due to the COVID-19 pandemic thus limiting the opportunities for those institutions to interact with potential members. At the same time, a shortage of computer chips has caused a new car shortage thus hurting auto lending.

Dealerships continue to work with Deseret First, he said, but as inventory volumes decline due to global chip shortages, it has affected how much auto loan volume the credit union could produce.

The pandemic slowed branch member growth briefly for $1.4 billion-asset Alabama Credit Union in Tuscaloosa after it closed some lobbies for about six weeks. But ACU operates in several markets with limited credit union presence, and is able to compete on loan and deposit rates, according to Steve Swofford, president and CEO of the organization.

“We do a pretty good job converting indirect [auto] customers into full fledged ACU members — somewhere near 20%,” Swofford said. “We grew loans over 20% in 2021, and 2022 has started strong as well, so that provides membership growth opportunities similar to 2021.”

ACU’s membership was 112,684 at the end of 2021, an 11% increase from a year earlier. Swofford predicts member growth in excess of 8% for 2022.

Bank consolidations provide an opportunity for ACU because many customers are open to moving their accounts when their bank is sold, according to Swofford.

“We actually have national and regional bank employees referring their customers to us for loans, saying the rates are so much better. In many markets, most of the bank employees are also ACU members," Swofford said.

Bouncing back?

Annual membership growth at credit unions hit 4% in 2018 but has not returned to that level since falling at the start of the pandemic, according to data from CUNA Mutual.

But there are several signs of improvement.

Federally insured credit unions added 4.9 million members in the past year, and credit union membership in those institutions reached 128.6 million in the third quarter of 2021, according to the latest data released by the NCUA.

A year earlier, those institutions added 4.2 million members, and membership reached 123.7 million.

Strong mortgage lending and the surge in hiring are two major factors driving the rise in credit union memberships, said CUNA Mutual chief economist Steve Rick. Job growth is a major factor determining credit union membership growth, he said, and the U.S. economy gained 6.5 million jobs during 2021, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

For 2022, 3.6 million new jobs are expected to be created as the economy exits the COVID-19 pandemic and recession.

“As the mortgage refinance boom ends, job growth and new auto indirect lending will become more of a factor in membership growth. We expect membership growth to rise slightly, to 4%, in 2022, which would be the first time it has risen to that level since 2018,” Rick said.

Deseret First anticipates strong membership growth as consumers want to get back to a more normal environment.

“Other financial institutions could be experiencing more of an impact but right now for us I think our value proposition to new members is strong,” London said.

CFPB Opens Inquiry into "Buy Now, Pay Later" Credit Plans

on 3:54 PM

 Rebecca Tetreau, Regulatory Compliance Counsel, NAFCU reports, that the CFPB  began a new project at the end of 2021, when it issued orders in December to various companies offering “buy now, pay later” (BNPL) credit programs to collect information on the risks and benefits of the loans.  The orders went to Affirm, Afterpay, Klarna, PayPal, and Zip.  CFPB Director Rohit Chopra likened the BNPL model as “the new version of the old layaway plan, but with modern, faster twists where the consumer gets the product immediately but gets the debt immediately, too.”

The press release on the inquiry notes that “the law requires that the CFPB monitor consumer financial markets and enables the agency to require market players to submit information to inform this monitoring.”  It is expected that the bureau will publish its findings from the BNPL inquiries to “illuminate the range of these consumer credit products and their underlying business practices.”

The CFPB is specifically looking for information about the following:

Accumulation of Debt

The bureau appears concerned with how easily consumers may utilize BNPL for more than just the “occasional big purchase,” which could lead to consumers spending more than they can afford.  BNPL providers have user-friendly mobile apps and web browser plug-ins, potentially making it easier to give in to shopping temptations even if the consumer already has “multiple purchases. . . with multiple companies,” making it more difficult to keep track of when payments are scheduled and to ensure that there is enough money to cover all the payments.  In the event of a consumer not having enough money in his/her account, the consumer may then be subject to additional fees/charges by not only the BNPL provider, but also the member’s credit union.  Questions on this topic can be found in Sections A and B of the sample order.

Regulatory Applicability

The CFPB is also concerned that some BNPL companies may not be adequately aware of which consumer protection laws apply to their loans.  Questions in Section C of the sample order seeks information about user disclosures and state licensing requirements.  Question 15 asks BNPL providers to describe and provide all of their agreements and disclosures, describe and provide all payment reminders, and to describe the user checkout process, including screenshots.  Question 16 asks BNPL providers about any state licenses, registrations, notifications, or certifications for all types of lending, retail installment contracts, money transmission, or remittances, and requests copies of any that apply.

The press release notes that “many BNPL companies do not provide dispute resolution protections available to users of other forms of credit, like credit cards,” and also notes that different late fees and policies may apply, depending on the particular rule(s) the lender is following.  Questions in Section D of the sample order asks about user contacts and demographics, including questions regarding certain user contacts about potential complaint issues.

Data Harvesting and Monetization

Lastly, the bureau is concerned that BNPL providers have access to their customers’ payment histories, and how that information will be used and/or monetized.  Questions in Sections E and F seek to gather information on these topics, including the kinds of data generated from product use and how the companies combine and use that data along with externally-sourced data. 

On the same day the bureau issued the press release and sample order regarding the BNPL inquiry, it also published a blog post for consumers with information on what to know before they buy (now, pay later) over the holiday season.  The blog discusses potential BNPL fees they wouldn’t otherwise be obligated to pay, potentially complicated returns, fewer consumer protections than credit cards, and the credit score impact of BNPL loans.

Biden team says global chip shortage to stretch through 2022

on 10:11 AM

 The Biden administration has concluded that a global semiconductor shortage will persist until at least the second half of this year, promising long-term strain on a range of U.S. businesses including automakers and the consumer electronics industry.

U.S. officials plan to investigate claims of possible price gouging for chips used by auto and medical device manufacturers, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said Tuesday.

“We aren’t even close to being out of the woods as it relates to the supply problems with semiconductors,” Raimondo said in a briefing with reporters discussing the findings of an industry report her agency conducted that was released Tuesday.

The report, based on information from more than 150 companies in the chip supply chain, shows “there is a significant, persistent mismatch in supply and demand for chips.” The companies don’t see the problem being solved in the next six months, according to the report.

The Commerce report highlights the limited options available to the Biden administration as it tries to respond to the crisis, which has caused production delays for electronic devices and furloughs in the auto industry. The chip shortage is also a key driver of higher inflation, which has bedeviled President Joe Biden’s White House and threatens to help swing Congress to Republican control in November’s midterm elections.

Median inventory has fallen from 40 days to fewer than 5 days, resulting in no room for error, Raimondo said.

Any disruption for overseas manufacturers, such as a Covid outbreak or weather-related incident, could lead to production shutdowns and furloughs in the U.S.

“The semiconductor supply chain remains fragile,” the report said, despite months of work by the Biden administration to try to relieve shortages. “Demand continues to far outstrip supply.”

Most industry executives have cautioned that the shortage won’t ease until the second half of this year, with some products continuing to be delayed by the scarcity of parts into 2023. While the industry may never be able to escape its roller-coaster nature, the current demand boom may last until 2025.

The shortage is particularly impacting the medical device, broadband and auto industries, according to the report. U.S. officials plan to immediately focus on resolving bottlenecks in those supply chains, the report said.

The administration also will investigate potential price gouging for certain types of semiconductors that have seen “unusually high prices” during the supply crunch, according to the Commerce report. Raimondo said it’s brokers, particularly in the auto as well as medical device sectors, that appear to be charging those increased prices.

Many semiconductors are sold through third-party distributors such as Avnet Inc. and Arrow Electronics Inc. that have traditionally acted as intermediaries between electronics makers and semiconductor manufacturers. Some companies, such as Texas Instruments Inc. are changing that model and forging more direct relationships with chip buyers.

The agency did not find any hoarding of chips, which was previously believed to have been a contributing factor to the shortage.

The Biden administration demanded last year that companies in the semiconductor supply chain provide information about supplies and demand for chips to help identify bottlenecks. Suppliers and consumers of chips have at times accused each other of impropriety and obfuscation in their transactions.

Raimondo and her team received responses from nearly every major semiconductor producer and from companies in multiple consuming industries. Her agency is following up with companies that didn’t respond or whose responses weren’t as comprehensive.

The report also found that median demand for chips was as much as 17% higher in 2021 than 2019, without commensurate increases in supply.

The Commerce Department report all but concedes that the government is powerless to resolve the bottlenecks.

“The private sector is best positioned to address the near-term challenge posed by the current shortage, via increased production, supply-chain management to minimize disruption, and product design to optimize the use of semiconductors,” it says.

But Raimondo said the report underscores the need for more investment in domestic manufacturing. Legislation that has stalled in Congress would dedicate $52 billion dollars to encourage semiconductor makers to build factories in the U.S.

“Congress must act,” she said.

Still, any new plants wouldn’t come online for years, offering no immediate relief for the shortage.

Raimondo has for months urged lawmakers to pass the measure, to no avail. Some members of Congress have said Biden should have gotten personally involved in the effort earlier.

Intel Corp. last week announced a $20 billion chip-making hub on the outskirts of Columbus, Ohio, which the company expects to grow to be the world’s biggest silicon-manufacturing site. The plant is expected to be operational by 2025.

Samsung Electronics Co. and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. are also expanding their investments in the U.S., though that production won’t come online this year, either.

Raimondo and her team hope that in the meantime, increased information-sharing between chip suppliers and consumers can help minimize mismatches between supply and demand.